Showing posts with label Ratings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ratings. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

A new rating system

The Grand Chess Tour has instituted a new rating system, which they call the Universal Rating System (tm). This rating combines all ratings (standard, rapid, blitz) into one rating. Their website explains the idea behind what they're doing and provides some evidence to show that their rating system is more accurate than the current Elo system in use by FIDE.

The people that actually did the work are Mr. Maxime Rischard, Dr. J. Isaac Miller, Dr. Mark Glickman, and Jeff Sonas. I don't recognize Rischard or Miller offhand, but Jeff Sonas and Mark Glickman are familiar names. Sonas did interesting work in the past on establishing good historical ratings, and Glickman created the Glicko rating systems, versions of which are in use by FICS (RIP), Chess.com, LiChess, and the USCF. The new system has a fine pedigree, and is funded by the Grand Chess Tour, the Kasparov Chess Foundation, and the Chess Club and Scholastic Center of Saint Louis.

One good thing is that they've adjusted the ratings so that they resemble the old ratings in terms of scale. Magnus is at 2852, so the scale and magnitude are familiar - at least they haven't created something that looks like the ECF monstrosity!

The new rating list does have some oddities worth remarking upon, however. First of all, Carlsen's lead has been extended over his rivals. Games at faster time controls are included in the URS, though given less weight, and Carlsen has been consistently dominant across all three domains. Caruana slips from a close second in the FIDE standard list to a distant fourth, as he's not comparatively that good at faster time controls. Kramnik and Nakamura are tied for second, and Nepomniachtchi rounds out the top five. You can see their January list here.

In any event, Jeff Sonas has written a (not at all brief) summation of what they've done and why. Check it out, if that's your thing. Personally I will say that the work looks good on the face of it, but I'm not sure the old system really needed that much improvement! One thing the old Elo system had going for it was that one could easily calculate one's ratings after an event, and the basic method was clear cut. Now? No so much. Here's an example:
Rather than inventing a specific formula that can be used to calculate ratings directly, like there is for the Elo system and for performance ratings, we have developed a probability model that analyzes a large domain of possible ratings for each player, with some ratings being more likely than others (based upon the overall population distribution of chess strength). Across those possible ratings, our system then determines how likely the actual results would have been to occur, and ultimately determines the most likely overall set of ratings, for all players at once, in order to best explain the actual results.*
Still, this is work upon which Sinquefield (and others) wish to hang their hats, and he who pays the singer calls the tune. I also suspect that this may be part of a plan by Sinquefield, Pein, Kasparov and others to wrest ratings from FIDE's grasp in an attempt to weaken that organization, and perhaps start something new in its place. It's been tried before, though, and failed, so I wouldn't count on this replacing FIDE's ratings in most people's minds any time soon.

* Incidentally, such a system really would not have been practical in the 1950s when Arpad Elo's system went into first use. Such wonders as the URS are possible because computing power has made both the sorting and calculating tasks needed for such a system relatively easily doable.

Friday, July 8, 2016

A peculiar result

Back in February, club stalwart Garry Day had an unusual result at the USATS: he played five games, at the end of which his rating was completely unchanged.

Over the last weekend, club semi-regular Theo Slade had an even more peculiar result: over eight games at the World Open, his rating was also unchanged. Perhaps this is more common because of the new rating formula they instituted a few years back?

Theo is having a busy summer, BTW. He played in the Summer Solstice Open and the Orlando Sunshine Open in back-to-back weekends at the start of June, and he's playing the World Open and the Philadelphia International Open back to back this week. If you've got the FollowChess app on your phone or tablet, you can follow his games live.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Chessmetrics

At the club last Thursday we started talking about historical ratings, and Chessmetrics came up. The site hasn't been updated since early 2005, but it's still there and still has a lot of interesting historical information. The proprietor is Jeff Sonas, who states the following on the front page:
Hello, I'm Jeff Sonas and I'd like to welcome you to my new and improved Chessmetrics site. This website is devoted to statistics about chess. Since the summer of 1999, I have spent countless hours analyzing chess statistics, inventing formulas and other analysis techniques, and calculating historical ratings. This website allows you to explore chess history "by the numbers" in an interactive way. You won't find any analysis of chess moves here, but you will find historical ratings and many other statistics that can't be found anywhere else in the world. In addition to estimating the chess-playing strength of individual players throughout chess history, I have also invented new ways to rate the strongest tournaments and matches of all time, as well as the best single-event individual performances. You can find lots of colorful graphs showing the rating progression of top players throughout time, and also age-aligned graphs, so you can see who were the most successful players at various ages.
It's a nice approach, though there were some criticisms of it. However, no system can be perfect, and his approach hasn't been surpassed as far as I know.

...

This also indirectly points out the difficulties in creating an alternative to FIDE. FIDE does a lot more than just organize a few tournaments and matches. They do lots of work on ratings, titles (including titles such as International Arbiter, which most of us never think about), rules, and who knows what else. If anyone really wants to create an alternative to FIDE, they're going to have to start doing this other work as well, which Kasparov's various entities never strived to do, to the best of my knowledge. We're stuck with FIDE until someone else is willing to at least attempt some of these other functions. And so far none of the FIDE wannabes have even tackled ratings, even though there have been at least three websites that I know of in which people have done their own work. So it CAN be done, but no one wants to do it.